February Auto Sales Expected to Remain Steady

 February Auto Sales Expected to Remain SteadySANTA MONICA, Calif.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,325,000 units in February, down 1.4 percent from a year ago.

“Look for incentives to decline to more manageable levels in Q2 as pullbacks in production lead to right size inventory on dealer lots”

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This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.45 million units for the month, down from a 17.69 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks should remain flat with 1,039,299 units.

“Retail sales are flat, but the collective reduction on fleet sales is leading to year-over-year declines,” said Eric Lyman, ALG’s chief industry analyst. “Disciplined fleet and inventory management are positive signs for the industry. The modest drop in sales is a byproduct of the medicine the industry needs to take to sustain a healthy balance between inventory and demand.”

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,443 per vehicle in February, up 13.5 percent from a year ago, and down 0.8 percent from January 2017.

“Look for incentives to decline to more manageable levels in Q2 as pullbacks in production lead to right size inventory on dealer lots,” said Lyman.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 96.3 this month compared to 98.5 in January. While slightly below last month, the Sentiment Index continues to signal the strength of a healthy U.S. economy. The January unemployment ratecame in at a nine year low of 4.8 percent in combination with a favorable average gas price of $2.29 recorded for this current week.

Other key findings for February:

  • Registration mix is expected to be 78.4 percent retail sales and 21.6 percent fleet versus 77.3 percent retail and 22.7 percent fleet last February.
  • Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,167,780, up 7.9 percent from February 2016.

Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:

Total Unit Sales

Manufacturer

February

2017 Forecast

February 2016

% Change vs.

February 2016

BMW 25,500 25,414 0.3 %
Daimler 27,500 25,632 7.3 %
FCA 165,000 183,607 -10.1 %
Ford 207,000 216,045 -4.2 %
GM 230,500 227,825 1.2 %
Honda 122,000 118,985 2.5 %
Hyundai 52,000 53,009 -1.9 %
Kia 45,000 49,737 -9.5 %
Nissan 124,000 130,911 -5.3 %
Subaru 46,000 42,011 9.5 %
Toyota 185,000 187,954 -1.6 %
Volkswagen Group 43,500 37,747 15.2 %

Industry

1,325,000

1,344,225

-1.4

%

Total Market Share

Manufacturer February 2017 Forecast February 2016 January 2017
BMW 1.9 % 1.9 % 1.9 %
Daimler 2.1 % 1.9 % 2.4 %
FCA 12.5 % 13.7 % 13.4 %
Ford 15.6 % 16.1 % 15.0 %
GM 17.4 % 16.9 % 17.1 %
Honda 9.2 % 8.9 % 9.3 %
Hyundai 3.9 % 3.9 % 3.9 %
Kia 3.4 % 3.7 % 3.1 %
Nissan 9.4 % 9.7 % 9.8 %
Subaru 3.5 % 3.1 % 3.8 %
Toyota 14.0 % 14.0 % 12.5 %
Volkswagen Group 3.3 % 2.8 % 3.6 %

Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

February 2017
Forecast

February 2016

YoY % Change

BMW 23,900 24,073 -0.7 %
Daimler 25,500 23,625 7.9 %
FCA 122,500 126,514 -3.2 %
Ford 134,500 133,616 0.7 %
GM 177,750 177,924 -0.1 %
Honda 120,500 117,379 2.7 %
Hyundai 35,485 34,330 3.4 %
Kia 33,015 41,073 -19.6 %
Nissan 87,000 88,715 -1.9 %
Subaru 43,500 40,353 7.8 %
Toyota 154,250 156,911 -1.7 %
Volkswagen Group 36,900 33,143 11.3 %

Industry

1,039,299

1,038,696

0.1

%

Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Incentive
per Unit
Feb 2017
Forecast

Incentive
per Unit
Feb 2016

Incentive
per Unit Jan
2017

Incentive
per Unit
%
Change
vs. Feb
2016

Incentive
per Unit
%
Change
vs. Jan
2017

Total Spending
Feb 2017
Forecast

BMW $ 4,450 $ 4,584 $ 4,032 -2.9 % 10.4 % $ 113,163,241
Daimler $ 4,415 $ 3,754 $ 4,465 17.6 % -1.1 % $ 121,413,963
FCA $ 4,187 $ 3,916 $ 4,219 6.9 % -0.8 % $ 686,249,164
Ford $ 4,096 $ 3,317 $ 4,144 23.5 % -1.1 % $ 847,959,642
GM $ 4,547 $ 4,022 $ 4,587 13.0 % -0.9 % $ 1,047,996,755
Honda $ 2,168 $ 1,490 $ 2,095 45.5 % 3.5 % $ 264,536,790
Hyundai $ 2,182 $ 2,099 $ 2,176 3.9 % 0.3 % $ 113,456,413
Kia $ 3,383 $ 2,872 $ 3,366 17.8 % 0.5 % $ 152,216,510
Nissan $ 3,975 $ 3,396 $ 3,993 17.1 % -0.4 % $ 492,939,580
Subaru $ 896 $ 557 $ 966 60.9 % -7.2 % $ 41,221,553
Toyota $ 2,155 $ 2,102 $ 2,212 2.5 % -2.6 % $ 398,685,309
Volkswagen Group $ 3,466 $ 3,386 $ 3,418 2.4 % 1.4 % $ 150,163,698

Industry

$

3,443

$

3,034

$

3,472

13.5

%

-0.8

%

$

4,545,210,258

(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)

About ALG

Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.

Contacts

TrueCar, Inc.
pressinquiries@truecar.com
Veronica Cardenas
424-258-2487
VCardenas@truecar.com

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